We live in a hungry world -- and one that will soon grow much hungrier. Global food demand is expected to double by mid-century because of rapid population growth and changing food habits. Producing that much food could require a billion hectares of additional farmland -- an area the size of Canada.
But if we develop new high-yielding 'supercrops' and farm them intensively, could we feed the world with less land and thereby spare some land for nature? Many have argued in favor of this idea.
But a new study published in the leading journal Science suggests the opposite: supercrops will actually encourage more habitat destruction for agriculture, especially in the species-rich tropics.
The authors argue that new varieties of palm oil, which are highly productive and profitable but grow only in the tropics, are simply going to keep spreading apace. That's because there's so many different uses for palm oil, including for many food items, cosmetics, and biofuels, that demand for it will remain high.
And, as palm-oil production rises, its price will likely fall, meaning that it will increasingly out-compete other oil-producing crops, such as canola (rapeseed), sesame seeds, and peanuts.
This, the authors say, will simply shift the footprint of agriculture from areas such as North America and Europe to mega-diversity regions such as the tropical rainforests of Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa.
What's the answer to the tsunami of oil palm and other profitable tropical crops? There really is only one alternative: we need proactive land-use zoning to determine where agriculture should and should not go -- to ensure it doesn't just overrun nature. And we need better law enforcement to reduce illegal deforestation.
And we direly need to limit the explosive expansion of roads into wilderness and high-biodiversity areas. By 2050, it's expected that we'll have an additional 25 million kilometers of new paved roads -- with nine-tenths of these in developing nations that sustain many of the world's biologically richest ecosystems.
There really is no other option. Supercrops may help feed a hungry world, but if they're not constrained they will destroy much of nature in the process.