The history of the Chinese Ivory trade is not what might be expected by outsiders.
In 2002 the ivory trade in China was virtually nonexistent. However, Chinese government regulations put in place that year classed ivory trade and craft as “intangible cultural heritage”, which came to threaten the future of elephants globally.
Over the past decade, ivory prices have risen by nearly 800 percent -- and have tripled in just the last few years. Demand in China has boomed, fed by small annual releases of seized stock and a weak licensing system -- with around 60% of licensed traders found to be in violation of the law.
Beyond that, there are an estimated five illicit traders for every licensed trader -- leading to a profound lack of transparency that has essentially prevented trade reporting and law enforcement.
That the Chinese government announced on May 28 to “phase out” the ivory trade in China is a good omen -- with the government symbolically crushing over 600 kilograms of seized ivory in Beijing.
But what this means in reality depends entirely on which measures to limit the domestic ivory trade will actually be implemented.
The government's announcement to halt ivory imports earlier in the year (26 February) added little to existing policies. And for the recently announced phase-out to have a real impact will require banning all legal trade in ivory, and strict enforcement. This is likely to be unpopular with China's growing middle class and senior officials.
Since the announcement on May 28, changes within customs and international trade procedures have commenced. But there have been no clear statements of plans to deal with China's domestic trade.
Until China takes strong internal measures to reduce domestic supply and demand -- and develops better strategies to police its porous borders for illegal ivory -- the fate of the world's wild elephants will remain precarious.